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The World Steel Association released its Short Range Outlook on October 12, 2026, forecasting that global steel demand will stay essentially flat at 1.722 billion metric tonnes in 2026 compared with 2025 levels. Demand is then expected to expand by 1.7 percent to reach 1.752 billion metric tonnes in 2027. This projection marks a downward revision from the association’s April outlook, which had called for 0.3 percent growth in 2026 and 2.2 percent expansion the year after.
According to the World Steel Association, the slower recovery trajectory stems largely from persistent weakness in China that has masked underlying strength elsewhere. Alfonso Hidalgo De Calcerrada, chair of the association’s economics committee, said, “The trajectory we set out in April holds, but the anticipated recovery is proving slower and more gradual than we had expected. Global steel demand is now forecast to be flat in 2026 rather than to grow modestly, and to grow by 1.7% in 2027 rather than 2.2%.” He added that the global economy’s ability to absorb repeated disruptions appears increasingly limited.
The World Steel Association’s assessment found that nearly the entire revision originates from China, where the property downturn has continued and infrastructure spending has underperformed while manufacturing has failed to compensate. Chinese steel demand is projected to contract by 2.0 percent to 780.1 million metric tonnes in 2026 and then decline a further 1.0 percent to 772.3 million metric tonnes in 2027. These figures compare with the association’s earlier expectation of a 1.5 percent drop in 2026 followed by stabilisation.
India remains the world’s fastest-growing major steel market, the World Steel Association reported, with demand forecast to increase 7.9 percent to 172.4 million metric tonnes in 2026 and then by 8.0 percent to 186.2 million metric tonnes in 2027. Growth is supported by sustained investment in infrastructure construction, private real estate development, manufacturing expansion and renewable energy projects. Steel demand across developing economies excluding China is seen advancing 1.9 percent in 2026 before accelerating to 5.1 percent growth in 2027, driven by a rebound in Developing Asia and the Middle East.
In the European Union, the World Steel Association data places apparent steel use on track for a 0.3 percent decline in 2026 followed by 3.1 percent growth in 2027 as construction activity improves gradually. Automotive output has remained subdued while the effects of stockbuilding ahead of new carbon border regulations have influenced 2025 outcomes. Demand outside China overall is projected to grow 1.5 percent this year and then by 4.0 percent in 2027, matching the pace anticipated in the April forecast.
Emerging trade frictions and continued instability in the Middle East constitute material risks to the outlook, the World Steel Association cautioned in its October release. Regional conflict has reversed prior strong growth in the Middle East, though a strong rebound is anticipated in 2027 once uncertainty eases and supply chains normalise. The association continues to monitor these geopolitical and economic factors that could alter steel consumption patterns across both developed and developing markets.
