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Brent crude futures declined 1.39 dollars or 1.31 percent to settle at 104.67 dollars a barrel in early trade on October 15, 2026 while West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 1.02 dollars or 1.07 percent to 94.07 dollars according to Reuters. The decline reversed gains from the prior session during which WTI had climbed to a three-week high. Market participants focused on balancing immediate geopolitical threats with prospects for additional barrels entering global markets.
The International Energy Agency reported that Russian crude production rose by 65,000 barrels per day in September to reach 8.43 million bpd although output remained 870,000 bpd below year-earlier levels. Gulf producers in the Middle East lifted crude exports by 4.4 million bpd that month bringing flows to around 75 percent of pre-war volumes. These supply gains have limited upward pressure on prices even as regional tensions persist.
American Petroleum Institute data showed US crude inventories fell by 11.1 million barrels in the week ended October 9 exceeding the draw anticipated by analysts polled by Reuters. Gasoline stocks rose while distillate inventories declined during the period. Haitong Futures stated in a note that despite the sharp inventory draw oil prices barely reacted suggesting investors remain cautious about pushing values higher at current levels.
A US official told Reuters on October 14 that the Trump administration is considering easing sanctions on shadow fleet vessels transporting oil and petroleum products from Russia Iran and Venezuela in order to reduce elevated freight costs. The Iran conflict has driven shipping expenses to record highs prompting discussions around allowing legal oil to move on previously restricted tankers. Such a policy shift could increase available supply and help moderate prices.
Bloomberg reported that oil fell as concerns over Middle East supply disruptions eased while the International Energy Agency adjusted its forecast for the war’s impact on global availability. Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities and Iranian statements about new tactics in the Strait of Hormuz had earlier lifted benchmarks. The combination of these developments left traders assessing the net effect on near-term flows.
The IEA has also highlighted slowing oil demand growth amid higher prices and economic uncertainties in its latest assessment. OPEC+ output increased in September adding to the broader supply picture. Analysts continue to monitor how these factors will influence prices in the coming weeks as additional data emerges from producers and consumers.
