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The Emirates News Agency reported that Brent futures advanced 93 cents to reach $101.51 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate crude increased 82 cents to $90.25 on the day. This movement reflected trader responses to constrained flows through key chokepoints and potential output losses from weather events. The agency noted how such factors have sustained upward pressure despite periodic pullbacks in trading.
Reuters reported on October 7 that a developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to become the first Atlantic hurricane of the year and could strike areas accounting for 15 percent of US crude production. The same dispatch indicated that crude stocks declined by 2.09 million barrels in the week to October 2, compounding tightness already present in diesel markets. KCM Trade chief analyst Tim Waterer told Reuters that the storm added an unwelcome layer of uncertainty at a time of multiple supply headaches.
The US Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook on October 6 and raised the forecasted 2026 average for Brent crude to $98 a barrel, an 8 percent increase from the prior month’s projection. The EIA assessment placed Brent at $105 a barrel for the fourth quarter, $14 above its earlier estimate, while projecting a drop to $84 in 2027 once inventories recover. Regional shut-in production reached its lowest point since the start of hostilities in September, the EIA data showed.
Bloomberg reported that oil prices held near the $101 level after earlier swings as higher Middle East export volumes were weighed against elevated tanker risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Executives at an industry forum in London highlighted thinning global buffers for both crude and refined products despite recent flow increases. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth stated at the forum that the energy system had become more fragile as the conflict progressed and supply buffers continued to erode.
Reuters data indicated that Gulf oil flows excluding Iran recovered above 81 percent of pre-war levels during September, with the Saudi East-West Pipeline reaching 5.8 million barrels per day according to statements from Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. Approximately 12 million barrels per day of crude along with 2 million barrels per day of refined products departed the Middle East in recent tanker loadings, a Vitol executive told Reuters. Attacks by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis on Saudi airports in Jazan and Najran have nevertheless kept supply disruption concerns elevated, the Saudi aviation authority reported.
A G7 decision to release 100 million barrels from emergency reserves helped moderate some immediate fears, according to a Reuters analysis, even as hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Houthi forces persisted. Yemeni government forces backed by Saudi airstrikes advanced to retake coastal territory near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a development that partially offset market worries. Oil prices have climbed more than 37 percent overall since the regional war began in February, the US Energy Information Administration figures show.
