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Boeing’s latest assessment of the commercial aviation sector maintains an unchanged call for 43,625 new aircraft deliveries between 2026 and 2045, a figure nearly identical to the company’s previous outlook. The forecast encompasses both replacement of older models and expansion to meet rising travel demand, with the manufacturer highlighting sustained long-term drivers such as tourism, trade and migration networks. According to the outlook, these projections hold even as the industry navigates capacity limitations and recent disruptions that have slowed short-term growth rates.
The breakdown detailed in Boeing’s report lists 33,545 single-aisle jets along with 7,715 widebody aircraft, 930 factory-built freighters and 1,435 regional jets to reach the overall total. Roughly half the deliveries, or 21,475 units, will replace aging planes while the remaining 22,150 will support fleet growth, Boeing’s data shows. The assessment further projects the global commercial fleet expanding from approximately 28,000 aircraft in 2025 to more than 50,000 by 2045, lifting the share of new-generation models from 32 percent to 92 percent.
Passenger traffic growth is seen slowing to 2.3 percent this year from 5.3 percent in the prior period before rebounding to between 6 and 7 percent in 2027 and 5 to 6 percent in 2028, the manufacturer indicated. Over the full 20-year horizon Boeing expects average annual passenger growth of 4 percent, cargo traffic rising 3.7 percent, the jet fleet expanding 3 percent and the world economy advancing 2.5 percent. “Our outlook is that passenger traffic globally will be where it would have been by the end of 2028,” Boeing Commercial Marketing Vice President Darren Hulst told reporters, distinguishing the current slowdown from the prolonged effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Regional demand splits in the Boeing forecast assign 21 percent of deliveries to China, 20 percent to Eurasia and 19 percent each to North America and South and Southeast Asia. The Middle East and Africa account for 10 percent, Latin America for 6 percent and Oceania with Northeast Asia for 5 percent, according to the company’s market projection released ahead of the Farnborough International Airshow. These shares reflect a balance between mature markets that drive replacement needs and emerging regions fueling capacity additions.
An undersupply approaching 2,000 aircraft is anticipated at the start of 2026, with single-aisle shortages projected to ease toward the end of the decade while widebody gaps linger into the early 2030s, Boeing’s analysis found. The planemaker continues to face certification delays on programs including the 737 MAX 7 and 10 variants as well as the 777-9, even after securing regulatory approvals to resume certain airworthiness certifications. Production rate increases to 47 narrowbody aircraft per month have been implemented to address backlog pressures, the company has reported.
Airbus adjusted its competing 20-year projection downward by about 1 percent to 42,060 aircraft partly in response to the Iran conflict and trade tensions, a move that Boeing’s outlook explicitly sets aside as irrelevant to its long-term assumptions. Hulst emphasized that fundamental demand factors remain intact regardless of temporary geopolitical events. “The reason why we travel and the reason why goods move isn’t changing,” he added in remarks that underscored the sector’s underlying resilience.
