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Brent crude futures eased early on October 19 as markets assessed the potential for increased Russian supplies following a US executive order waiving certain sanctions and tariffs. The benchmark contract declined 0.45 percent to settle at $109.06 a barrel according to trading data reported by Reuters while West Texas Intermediate crude also registered modest losses in the session. Emirates News Agency reported the fall in prices amid a complex geopolitical backdrop that continues to influence global energy flows.
President Donald Trump signed the order on Friday potentially easing limits on Russian energy trade although Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that a full assessment of the economic effects could take up to 60 days. The waiver does not impact sanctions imposed earlier in the conflict according to multiple wire service accounts. Traders weighed this development against persistent risks that have kept prices elevated above the $100 level for much of the recent period.
Ukrainian strikes on a Russian oil terminal in St. Petersburg at the weekend added to concerns over European supply chains The Wall Street Journal reported while attacks in the Persian Gulf have reduced regional crude shipments by more than 40 percent from baseline levels in recent weeks. Kpler analytics data showed Gulf flows averaging well below normal rates as a result of these incidents. Morgan Stanley analysts highlighted that combined supplies from affected producers remain 5.5 million barrels a day short of year-earlier volumes.
The International Energy Agency forecast a contraction in global oil demand of 2.6 million barrels per day on average for 2026 driven by sustained high prices and economic pressures in key consuming regions. Its October market report projected a 2.5 million barrel daily year-on-year drop specifically for the fourth quarter with diesel accounting for a significant share of the decline. These demand-side factors have interacted with supply uncertainties to produce sharp price swings in recent trading.
Brent had climbed as high as $110.70 a barrel in the previous session marking its highest point since May before the latest retreat which analysts at ANZ Research attributed partly to technical profit-taking. The bank cautioned that any additional downside appeared limited given the risk of further disruptions to energy infrastructure across multiple regions. US crude inventory figures are also in focus with preliminary polls indicating an expected draw in stockpiles that could provide underlying support.
