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The IMF’s World Economic Outlook released earlier this month forecast 7.7 percent growth for the UAE in 2027, positioning the country among the faster expanding economies in the Gulf. The projection follows an expected 3.9 percent contraction this year as regional conflict affected energy supplies and trade routes through vital corridors. The fund’s data showed the UAE achieved 6.2 percent expansion in 2025, the highest rate among the six GCC states that year.
According to the IMF report, the Middle East and Central Asia region is set to contract by 0.3 percent in 2026 before expanding 6.3 percent in 2027. Global economic growth stands at a projected 3.1 percent for the current year and 3.4 percent in 2027, the assessment found. The UAE forecast exceeds the regional average for next year while reflecting a strong recovery once shipping and energy flows normalize.
The IMF assessment also projected the UAE current account balance would rise to 7.8 percent of gross domestic product in 2027 from 4.8 percent this year. Consumer prices are expected to ease to 2.5 percent in 2027 after climbing to 4.5 percent in 2026, the report indicated. These metrics come as the fund raised its 2027 global growth estimate by 0.2 percentage points from an earlier projection.
UAE Central Bank Governor Khaled Mohamed Balama told the IMF annual meetings in Bangkok that growth could reach around 10 percent in 2027. The governor cited accelerating non-oil activities, sustained infrastructure investment and expanded oil production capacity after the UAE’s OPEC exit as key drivers. His remarks, delivered alongside finance ministers from the MENAP region, highlighted the economy’s resilience supported by low public debt and large sovereign assets.
The divergence between the IMF projection and the central bank’s outlook stems from differing assumptions on the timing of regional stabilization, according to analyses of both forecasts. The IMF baseline incorporates a phased reopening of key maritime routes beginning in March 2027 with full normalization by October. Central bank figures place greater weight on immediate gains from diversification policies already under way.
Separate assessments from the World Bank and Fitch Ratings have projected UAE growth between 8.5 percent and 9.5 percent for 2027, aligning broadly with the central bank’s view. The IMF report noted that the UAE stands to benefit from global demand linked to artificial intelligence technologies and shifts in international trade patterns. Such external tailwinds complement domestic efforts to strengthen the non-hydrocarbon sector, which the central bank said now accounts for the bulk of economic momentum.
