ع
Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz announced Türkiye’s updated Medium-Term Program for 2027-2029 at the Presidential Complex in Ankara, setting a target for nominal GDP to exceed 2.2 trillion dollars by the end of the decade while bringing inflation back to single-digit levels. The plan projects per capita income to rise to 25,000 dollars and positions the country to become the world’s 16th-largest economy by nominal GDP, according to the vice president’s presentation. Yılmaz, who unveiled the program alongside Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, described the roadmap as building on macroeconomic stability achieved since 2023, with a focus on sustainable growth that avoids inflationary pressures.
The program forecasts economic growth at 3.3 percent for 2026, accelerating to 4.2 percent in 2027, 4.6 percent in 2028 and 5 percent in 2029, a sequence that Yılmaz said would create 2.1 million additional jobs over the period. Inflation, which the government now expects to reach 28.4 percent by the end of 2026, is projected to ease to 21 percent in 2027, 13.5 percent in 2028 and 9 percent in 2029, according to the Medium-Term Program document. The vice president noted that the 2026 inflation forecast was revised upward from an earlier projection of 16 percent, citing the impact of regional conflicts that the central bank estimates have added around seven percentage points to price pressures.
National income is expected to surpass 1.8 trillion dollars by the end of 2026, with per capita income exceeding 20,000 dollars for the first time, before climbing to the 2.2 trillion dollar threshold three years later, Yılmaz stated in his address. The program also targets goods and services exports at 450 billion dollars by 2029 while reducing the current account deficit-to-GDP ratio from 2.6 percent in 2026 to 1.6 percent by the final year. Yılmaz told the audience that the strategy emphasises productivity gains, with total factor productivity projected to contribute 1.1 percentage points to annual growth on average.
Unemployment is forecast to decline gradually from 8.1 percent in 2026 to 7.6 percent in 2029 as the government pursues labour market reforms focused on youth, women and people with disabilities, according to the vice president’s briefing. The plan anticipates roughly 700,000 new jobs each year, aligning with the economy’s historical capacity to generate employment at that scale, Yılmaz added. These employment goals form part of a broader effort to raise living standards while maintaining fiscal discipline, with the budget deficit targeted at 3.1 percent of GDP in 2026 before further gradual reductions.
Türkiye’s inflation peaked at 75.5 percent in May 2024 before beginning a clear downward trend, reaching around 31.5 percent by August 2026, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute show. The Medium-Term Program builds on that disinflation process, prioritising price stability as the foundation for sustainable growth and investment. Yılmaz stressed that the government remains committed to policies that balance growth with macroeconomic stability, including green transition measures ahead of hosting COP31 in Antalya later in 2026.
International Monetary Fund projections place Türkiye’s 2026 growth at 2.9 percent, below the government’s 3.3 percent forecast, while anticipating inflation will remain in double digits through the end of the decade, an IMF World Economic Outlook update indicated. The Turkish program nevertheless aims to secure the country’s position among the top 20 global economies, with Yılmaz highlighting that the 2.2 trillion dollar GDP target would mark the first time the threshold has been crossed. The vice president said the combination of structural reforms, productivity improvements and disciplined fiscal policy would support these ambitions despite external challenges such as elevated energy import costs.
