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The Ministry of Finance and National Economy released its economic quarterly report for the first quarter of 2026 this week, drawing on preliminary national accounts from the Information and eGovernment Authority. Real GDP at constant prices fell 3.8 percent year on year, the report showed, after oil activities declined 37.2 percent amid navigation restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz and scheduled maintenance. Non-oil activities nevertheless expanded 2.2 percent at constant prices and formed 90.1 percent of total real GDP in the period, according to the ministry’s figures. The data underscore the growing weight of diversified sectors even when hydrocarbon output faces headwinds.
Financial and insurance activities, the largest non-oil component, achieved the highest growth rate of 8.6 percent among such sectors and contributed 19.7 percent to overall GDP, the quarterly report stated. Manufacturing ranked as the second-biggest non-oil activity with a 14.6 percent share, followed by public administration at 9.0 percent and construction at 7.0 percent, the ministry’s breakdown indicated. Nine of the 13 non-oil activities recorded positive growth during the quarter, according to the same document.
The Ministry of Finance and National Economy’s earlier annual review for 2025 placed full-year real GDP growth at 3.5 percent, supported by a 4.1 percent rise in non-oil activities that offset a 0.3 percent dip in oil output. Non-oil sectors accounted for 85.8 percent of GDP at constant prices across all of 2025, a proportion that rose in the opening quarter of 2026, the Information and eGovernment Authority data show. Professional, scientific and technical activities together with accommodation and food services led non-oil growth that year at 6.4 percent each.
Financial and insurance activities expanded 5.6 percent for the full year 2025, the ministry’s annual report found, while construction advanced 5.0 percent and transportation and storage increased 4.7 percent. Wholesale and retail trade grew 4.2 percent and education rose 4.0 percent over the same period. These outcomes reflect the sustained contribution of key non-oil areas that the latest quarterly release continues to track.
The Ministry of Finance and National Economy projected real GDP growth of 3.3 percent for the entire year 2026, with non-oil activities forecast to increase 3.5 percent, according to assumptions outlined in its 2025 annual document. Inward foreign direct investment stock had risen 3.5 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2025 to reach BD17.1 billion, prior ministry data indicated. The latest quarterly figures arrive as Bahrain maintains focus on broadening its economic base beyond oil.
Consumer prices showed only a 0.1 percent year-on-year increase in the first quarter of 2025, the ministry noted in earlier reporting, highlighting measures to manage global supply chain effects. The non-oil expansion in the first quarter of 2026 aligns with longer-term diversification patterns visible in preceding years. The Information and eGovernment Authority continues to supply the underlying national accounts used across these successive reports.
