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The International Monetary Fund projected real GDP growth of 3.5 percent for Oman in 2026 even after a downward revision linked to global market volatility, its April World Economic Outlook update showed. The World Bank separately forecast expansion of 2.4 percent for the year while domestic projections earlier ranged from 2.6 percent to 4 percent. Non-oil sectors including construction, manufacturing, logistics and services will drive the advance in line with Oman Vision 2040 priorities, an assessment published by the Oman Daily Observer in January found.
Oman’s state budget for 2026 projects revenue above 11.4 billion rials with a conservative approach to oil income estimates that aims to reduce vulnerability to price swings, according to official documents. The planning maintains emphasis on fiscal sustainability after several years of consolidation that strengthened public finances. Non-oil revenue continued to expand while public debt trended lower, the Ministry of Finance performance reports indicated.
Credit rating agencies have recognised the improved position with successive upgrades that reached investment grade status by late 2025. Fitch Ratings lifted Oman to BBB- with a stable outlook in December 2025 while Moody’s moved to Baa3 with stable outlook in July 2025 and S&P Global Ratings affirmed BBB- with stable outlook, KPMG budget commentary noted. These changes are expected to reduce borrowing costs and bolster investor confidence throughout 2026.
Authorities approved plans to establish an international financial centre equipped with distinct regulatory and administrative structures as part of efforts to deepen the financial sector, the Oman Daily Observer reported. A labour market policy shift under the Omanisation programme took effect in January 2026 restricting expatriates from certain positions to boost domestic employment. The move could increase local hiring but risks short-term disruptions in some service industries if skills gaps emerge, according to the January analysis.
Nearly 70 percent of Oman’s GDP now derives from non-oil activities, a Forbes Middle East assessment found in April, reflecting the success of diversification initiatives. Public debt is predicted to decline to around 33 percent of GDP this year, IMF figures show. The current account is also expected to record a surplus supported by stable hydrocarbon exports.
Oman Vision 2040 continues to guide policy with focus on private sector development and economic resilience, the Ministry of Economy stated in its projections. Inflation is forecast to remain low at around 1.7 percent, according to the latest IMF country data. The combination of controlled spending, reform implementation and rating gains positions the economy for steady progress through the remainder of 2026.
