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The Emirates News Agency reported that Brent crude futures declined 48 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $74.74 a barrel on Tuesday while West Texas Intermediate crude fell 37 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $70.68. Both benchmarks had approached their highest levels since April in the previous session before the retreat set in. The price action reflected a market recalibrating to fresh supply and demand indicators that emerged during the trading day.
According to the WAM dispatch, the decline gained momentum on expectations that OPEC+ could bring forward plans to raise output from December rather than adhering to a first-quarter 2025 timetable. The producer group has been unwinding voluntary cuts implemented in 2023 and 2024 to support prices during a period of weaker consumption growth. Sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters that several members were open to adding barrels sooner if market conditions allowed.
U.S. Energy Information Administration figures released the previous day showed domestic crude inventories rising by 1.9 million barrels in the latest weekly period. That build exceeded the 1.5 million barrels anticipated in a Reuters poll of analysts and contributed to the bearish tone in trading. Commercial stockpiles in the key Cushing, Oklahoma, hub also increased, according to the same inventory report.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index slipped to 49.0 in October, signaling a contraction in factory activity for the second consecutive month. The reading heightened concerns about oil demand in the world’s second-largest consumer, where industrial output and export growth have both moderated. An International Energy Agency assessment placed global oil demand growth for 2024 at roughly 900,000 barrels per day, a downward revision from earlier projections.
A World Bank commodity outlook published last month forecast that Brent crude would average around $78 per barrel for the full year before easing to $74 in 2025 as non-OPEC supply from the United States, Canada and Guyana continues to expand. The projection factors in steady production outside the OPEC+ alliance that the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects to rise by more than 1 million barrels per day next year. Such additions could test the producer group’s ability to defend price floors without further intervention.
Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have at times propelled prices higher this year on fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Yet the absence of major new escalations has allowed traders to focus on fundamental balances, with attention now turning to the next OPEC+ ministerial meeting scheduled for late November. Additional data on U.S. rig counts and Chinese import volumes are expected to shape sentiment in the coming sessions.
