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The Emirates News Agency reported that oil prices rose with Brent crude topping 115 dollars per barrel amid persistent concerns over energy supplies from key producing areas. West Texas Intermediate crude followed a similar path although it settled below the triple digit mark in some sessions. Traders responded to a combination of diplomatic moves and renewed attacks that have kept volatility elevated throughout the month. Market data showed prices fluctuating as participants weighed the latest developments in regional conflicts.
According to Reuters, Brent crude futures settled down 1.93 dollars or 1.67 percent at 113.88 dollars a barrel on October 27 while remaining near six month highs due to Middle East shipping disruptions.[[1]](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-eases-middle-east-diplomacy-hopes-saudi-attacks-keep-supply-worries-alive-2026-10-27/) Iranian officials held talks with representatives from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan as efforts continued to prevent wider escalation of the US Israeli war with Iran. October has recorded the highest number of attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waters since tracking began in 2017. A Washington Institute for Near East Policy assessment found that risks could intensify if naval support decreases in the area.
Goldman Sachs researchers observed that precautionary buying by physical crude purchasers and portfolio hedging by institutional investors have helped sustain elevated prices despite some supply recovery.[[2]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges/why-oil-prices-are-surging-despite-recovering-supply) Refiners have bid aggressively for available barrels given low inventory levels and perceived downside risks from intensified shipping attacks and strikes on infrastructure by the Houthis. Brent has climbed almost 90 percent so far in 2026 according to CNBC data as the conflict has disrupted energy flows.[[3]](https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/commodities/crude-oil-prices-brent-wti-us-iran-war-west-asia-russia-strait-of-hormuz-supply-usd115-saudi-houthi-attacks-20019831.htm) The bank’s analysts noted that risks to their base case forecast remain skewed to the upside.
The International Energy Agency projected that world oil demand will decline by 2.6 million barrels per day on average in 2026 with diesel accounting for a quarter of the drop.[[4]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2026) Its October market report placed global oil supply at 102.3 million barrels per day in September after a 2.5 million barrel per day monthly increase driven by Gulf producers. North Sea Dated crude averaged 116.89 dollars per barrel that month as Asian refiners accelerated purchases. The agency cautioned that renewed attacks in the Gulf have left the supply recovery vulnerable.
US Energy Information Administration figures show that Brent crude spot prices averaged 114 dollars per barrel in September which was 23 dollars higher than August.[[5]](http://goo.gl/1ywm16) The administration has estimated that Middle East crude production shut ins averaged 4.8 million barrels per day in September down from a peak of 10.9 million barrels per day in May. Its latest short term outlook forecasts Brent averaging 105 dollars per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. Inventories have continued to draw as flows from the region remain constrained.
SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop said “The impression now is that there is a significant risk premium in crude oil prices for the risk that the US/Israel will attack Iran in the coming weeks.” UBS analysts expect Brent prices to stay elevated near 110 dollars per barrel through the end of the year up from a previous forecast of 100 dollars. A separate Mordor Intelligence sector outlook had previously projected steady growth in related energy markets although current events have altered near term trajectories. The US Energy Information Administration also recorded a 3.1 million barrel decline in US commercial crude inventories for the week ending October 16.
