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S&P Global Ratings expects most rated GCC corporate and infrastructure issuers to sustain stable credit profiles in 2026, according to its report released on February 11. The assessment highlighted strong credit quality, ample liquidity buffers and sovereign support as key factors enabling issuers to manage potential risks from oil price movements and regional uncertainties. Economic growth across the bloc is forecast at 2 percent to 4 percent for 2026 and 2027, underpinned by domestic demand, ongoing infrastructure programs and steady hydrocarbon production, S&P Global Ratings data shows. Non-oil activities now represent 75 percent of GDP in the UAE and 71 percent in Saudi Arabia, reducing exposure to commodity volatility, the report stated.
GCC companies raised $9.7 billion in the debt markets during January 2026, a sharp increase from $2 billion in the same month a year earlier, according to S&P Global Ratings figures. Annual refinancing needs are expected to average around $20 billion over the next four years with no major maturity concentrations, the agency reported. More than 90 percent of rated issuers maintain adequate or stronger liquidity, providing a buffer against funding disruptions. S&P Global Ratings noted that regional capital markets had shown resilience in past stress episodes, limiting broader economic spillovers.
Approximately 66 percent of S&P-rated GCC corporates and infrastructure issuers hold investment-grade ratings while 97 percent carry stable outlooks, the February report indicated. Government-related entities account for 58 percent of the rated universe and can receive up to six notches of uplift from sovereign support, S&P Global Ratings assessment found. In Saudi Arabia, 29 percent of capital expenditure by these entities ties directly to Vision 2030 initiatives, sustaining project momentum even under lower oil revenues.
National oil companies remain well positioned to absorb lower crude prices thanks to strong balance sheets and low production costs, according to the S&P Global Ratings outlook. Telecom operators are projected to record annual revenue growth of 2 percent to 4 percent in 2026-27, driven by continued investment in 5G networks and data centers, although margins may face mild pressure. Real estate developers, particularly in Dubai, are experiencing a moderation in growth after several years of double-digit expansion while the chemicals sector contends with a prolonged downturn, the report detailed.
Infrastructure issuers benefit from long-term contractual revenues and close sovereign linkages that support stable credit profiles, S&P Global Ratings said. Public-private partnerships are expanding from traditional utilities into transport, social infrastructure and digital projects, with Saudi Arabia assuming a leading role across the region. Fitch Ratings, in its own January 2026 assessment, similarly adopted a neutral stance on GCC corporates, citing steady operating conditions, robust business profiles and sustained state-led investment programs.
Geopolitical tensions, including potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or escalation involving US-Iran relations, constitute key sensitivities even if the base case assumes limited impact, according to S&P Global Ratings. The agency cautioned that severe and disruptive credit scenarios remain possible though regional financial systems have demonstrated resilience in prior episodes. A subsequent International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook published in April 2026 projected global growth at 3.1 percent for the year under assumptions of contained Middle East conflict.
