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According to the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook released on October 28, 2026, global commodity prices are set to increase by 23 percent in 2026 before declining by 7 percent in 2027. Energy prices are projected to rise 32 percent in 2026, reversing three years of declines and reaching a four-year high, largely due to the Middle East conflict that has drawn down oil inventories. Brent crude is forecast to average 91 dollars per barrel this year, up from 69 dollars in 2025, before easing to 79 dollars in 2027. The report assumes no major escalation in conflicts but notes that markets have become more vulnerable to supply shocks with depleted stocks.
The World Bank expects food commodity prices to rise about 10 percent in 2026 and an additional 7 percent in 2027 for a cumulative gain of 18 percent. Disruptions to grain shipments from the Black Sea conflict, threats to harvests from El Niño and higher fuel plus fertilizer costs are the main factors behind the increases. Fertilizer prices are set to climb 14 percent in 2026 after an early surge in urea costs before returning to 2025 levels the next year. These pressures risk worsening food affordability and insecurity in developing economies.
Metals and minerals prices are projected to hit a record high in 2026 with a 25 percent increase, the World Bank assessment found. Aluminum, copper and tin are all expected to set new price records driven by supply issues and demand from renewable energy projects, electric vehicles and data centers. In an adverse scenario where Middle East conflicts intensify, Russian oil infrastructure suffers further damage, Black Sea grain shipments face more attacks and a strong El Niño materializes, Brent could average 105 dollars a barrel in 2027 with food prices 12 percent above baseline forecasts.
Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group, said, “Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once.” The forecasts assume no major intensification of conflicts affecting global commodity supplies. Risks remain tilted to the upside for both energy and food costs.
Global oil supply is projected to fall 5.2 percent in 2026, the largest decline outside the pandemic era since the 1980s, according to World Bank figures. European natural gas prices could jump nearly 60 percent due to greater competition for non-Middle East supplies. A 2.5 percent drop in oil demand this year, the third-largest on record, is helping to limit some of the price surge that would otherwise be higher.
The World Bank issues its Commodity Markets Outlook twice a year with the latest edition highlighting how the combination of these shocks could add to global inflation. In the early 2010s a similar food crisis pushed more than 40 million people into extreme poverty, a benchmark the report references in its risk analysis. The projections draw on evolving conditions in key producing and consuming regions worldwide.
